Sunspot Activity On the Sun Is Seriously Exceeding Official Predictions

“Weather predictions here on Earth are more accurate than they’ve ever been,” writes ScienceAlert.

“Trying to predict the behavior of our wild and wacky Sun is a little more tricky.”

Case in point: according to official predictions, the current cycle of solar activity should be mild. But the gap between the prediction and what’s actually happening is pretty significant — and it’s getting wider. Sunspot counts, used as a measure for solar activity, are way higher than the predicted values calculated by the NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environmental Service.

In fact, sunspot counts have been consistently higher than predicted levels since September 2020. This could mean that, in contrast to predictions, the Sun is in the swing of an unusually strong activity cycle…. [T]he number of sunspots for the last 18 months has been consistently higher than predictions. At time of writing, the Sun has 61 sunspots, and we’re still over three years from solar maximum.

Here’s what makes that even more significant. In 2020 a team of scientists (led by solar physicist Scott McIntosh of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research) predicted that, based on long-term solar cycle trends, this solar cycle was likely to be stronger — and perhaps one of the strongest ever recorded.

They’d also said in 2020 that scientists “lacked a fundamental understanding” of the mechanism behind sun spot cycles, and argued that if this sun cycle proves them correct, “we will have evidence that our framework for understanding the Sun’s internal magnetic machine is on the right path.”
Thanks to long-time Slashdot reader schwit1 for sharing this article