AGI is On Clients’ Radar But Far From Reality, Says Gartner

Gartner is warning that any prospect of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is at least 10 years away and perhaps not certain to ever arrive. It might not even be a worthwhile pursuit, the analyst says. AGI has become a controversial topic in the last couple of years as builders of large language models (LLMs), such as OpenAI, make bold claims that they’ve established a near-term path toward human-like intelligence. At the same time, others from the discipline of cognitive science have scorned the idea, arguing that the concept of AGI is poorly understood and the LLM approach is insufficient.

In its Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2024, Gartner says it distills “key insights” from more than 2,000 technologies and, using its framework, produces a succinct set of “must-know” emerging technologies that have the potential to deliver benefits over the next two to ten years. The consultancy notes that GenAI — the subject of volumes of industry hype and billions in investment — is about to enter the dreaded “trough of disillusionment.” Arun Chandrasekaran, Gartner distinguished VP analyst, told The Register: “The expectations and hype around GenAI are enormously high. So it’s not that the technology, per se, is bad, but it’s unable to keep up with the high expectations that I think enterprises have because of the enormous hype that’s been created in the market in the last 12 to 18 months.”

However, GenAI is likely to have a significant impact on investment in the longer term, Chandrasekaran said. “I truly still believe that the long-term impact of GenAI is going to be quite significant, but we may have overestimated, in some sense, what it can do in the near term.”