Scientists on Earth will be spending weeks after the impact measuring the actual change in the moonlet’s orbit to compare with their predictions. The work will refine scientists’ understanding of how asteroids respond to impactors and help to tune any future missions to the necessary amount of orbital change. “This isn’t just a one-off event,” Nancy Chabot, the DART coordination lead at the Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, which runs the mission, said during the news conference. “We want to know what happened to Dimorphos, but more important, we want to understand what that means for potentially applying this technique in the future.”
While the stakes are low compared to any scenario that would motivate a real asteroid-deflecting mission, the difficulty is the same. “This is incredibly challenging,” Evan Smith, the deputy mission system engineer, said during the news conference, noting that the spacecraft will only be able to see Dimorphos itself about an hour and a half before impact. “This is a par-one course, so we’re going in for the hit this time.” And if something doesn’t go according to plan? Mission personnel are pretty confident that, as long as the spacecraft hits its target, there should be something to see. “If DART collides with Dimorphos and then you don’t see any orbital period change, this would be exceptionally surprising,” Chabot said. “Just the amount of momentum that DART is bringing in on its own from the weight of the spacecraft slamming into Dimorphos is enough to shift its orbit in a measurable way.”