‘Off the Charts’ El Nino Is Already the Strongest Since Records Began

A rapidly developing El Nino is already reaching record-setting levels for this time of year and is expected to intensify further over the coming months. It is off the charts. Usual measures of El Nino have blown past prior record levels in the period with good data, even though maximum effects are still several months in the future. Climate scientists disagree over whether it has already surpassed previous “super El Nino” events on every metric, but several say the signal is unprecedented in forecasts and could ultimately become the strongest modern event on record. New Scientist reports: There are different ways of measuring El Ninos, which occur when warm surface waters spread eastwards along the equator across the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Hansen thinks the best measure is how much warmer than usual the upper 300 meters of the eastern tropical Pacific becomes. “Our preferred metric, the heat anomaly in the upper 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean… already exceeds the 1997-98 super El Nino,” he writes.

[…] What’s clear is that this developing super El Nino will soon exceed previous events on all measures. “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts,” [Adam Scaife at the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service] said in a statement released today. “If the forecast is accurate… then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.”

While Hansen is comparing the developing super El Nino to other modern events for which we have direct temperature records, Hayley Fowler at Newcastle University in the UK thinks it could also exceed historical events suspected to be even larger. “The super El Nino evolving in the Pacific will likely be the biggest ever recorded, reaching or exceeding the levels of the 1877-1878 El Nino which caused widespread impacts, including famines and around 50 million deaths (3-4 percent of the global population at the time), mostly across Asia and South America,” Fowler said in a statement.