Three-Quarters of Countries Face Below-Replacement Fertility by 2050

Global fertility rates have fallen from five children per woman in the mid-twentieth century to 2.2 today, with approximately half of countries now below the 2.1 replacement threshold, according to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Mexico’s rate dropped from seven children in 1970 to 1.6 in 2023. South Korea recorded 0.75 in 2024, down from 4.5 in 1970. The IHME projects over three-quarters of countries will fall below replacement level by 2050. A UN survey of 14,000 people across 14 countries found 39% cited financial limitations as a primary reason for not having children. China’s population peaked around 2022 at 1.4 billion, while the U.S. Census Bureau predicts America’s population will peak in 2080 at 370 million.